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基于武汉市2005-2012年逐日夏季逐日气温与死亡率数据，本文利用T—检验和格兰杰因果检验等方法分析了高温热浪对武汉市夏季人群死亡的影响。与夏季非高温时段相比较，武汉市夏季人群超额死亡率仅在35-35.5℃、36.5-37℃两个高温区表现出显著差异，其余高温时段影响并不明显；在轻度、中度和重度不同等级热浪中，中度热浪人群超额死亡率最高。从不同的年龄结构来看，老年组（≥65岁）超额死亡率（0.70/105）明显高于年轻组（大于13岁小于65岁）（0.044/105），年轻组男性人群超额死亡率仅对35-35.5℃区间高温响应敏感。从性别来看，年轻组男性的平均超额死亡率高于女性，而老年组中女性超额死亡率高于男性。另外，武汉市高温热浪对人口死亡的影响男性响应时间比女性早，但女性滞后效应更长，存在1d、3d、6d、7d、9d、10d多个滞后期，而7d滞后期最为显著。

Based on the data of daily temperature and mortality in Wuhan during summers of 2005-2012 and applying such test methods as T-test and Granger Causality Test, the influences of summer heat waves have on mortality in Wuhan are analyzed in this paper. Compared with that of non-high temperature summer period, excess mortality in Wuhan has significant difference merely when the t99emperature reaches 35-35.5℃ or 36.5-37℃ and has no obvious influence during other high-temperature periods. Among the three classes of heat wave (mild, medium and severe), excess mortality of medium class is the highest. In terms of age structure, excess mortality（0.70/10⁵） of old-age group (≥65) is noticeably higher than that of young group (aging 13~65) (0.044/10⁵), among which the male’s excess mortality is only sensitive to high temperature from 35 to 35.5 ℃. In terms of sex, average excess mortality of the male in young group is higher than that of the female, and gets the other way around in old-age group. In addition, the male respond earlier than the female to influence of heat waves have on mortality in Wuhan, yet the female have a longer lag effect and such lag periods as 1d, 3d, 6d, 7d (the most remarkable one), 9d and 10d.

世界气象组织(WMO)建议日最高气温高于32℃持续3天以上的天气过程为热浪；荷兰皇家气象研究所认为热浪为一段最高温度高于25℃持续5天以上(其间至少有3天高于30℃)的天气过程 ；美国国家天气局、加拿大、以色列等国家气象部门都依据综合考虑了温度和相对湿度影响的热指数(也称显温)发布高温警报，当白天热指数预计连续两天有3小时超过40.5℃或者预计热指数在任一时间超过46.5℃ ,发布高温警报，德国科学家基于人体热量平衡模型制定了人体生理等效温度(PET)，当PET超过41.1℃，热死亡率显著上升，这可用作热浪的监测预警的指标，中国气象局则规定日最高温度35℃以上为高温。此外，考虑到其它因子在高温激发下也会对人体产生影响，一些研究将高温分别与气象因子(Gaffen et al,2006)、环境污染因子(Stedman et al,2004)、疾病因子(Haines  et al 2006)结合，构建了多样的热指数。目前，多样化的指数也表征了高温热浪情形下不同区域环境的影响差异。

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) suggests that the heat wave is the weather process during which daily maximum temperature is the weather process above 32℃ and lasts for more than three days; the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute holds that the heat wave is a weather process during which maximum temperature in a period is higher than 25 ℃ and lasts more than 5 days (during which temperature of at least three days is higher than 30℃ ). American National Weather Service and national meteorological departments of Canada, Israel and some other countries release high temperature warning according to the heat index (also known as dominant temperature) which comprehensively considers the influence of temperature and relative humidity. Warning is given out when the daytime heat index is predicted to exceed 40.5℃ for three hours in successive two days or exceed 46.5℃ at any time. German scientists made a physiological equivalent temperature (PET) based on human body heat balance model--when the PET exceeds 41.1℃, the heat mortality will increase significantly; thus it can be applied as monitoring and early warning index of heat waves. China Metrological Administration stipulates that when daily maximum temperature is higher than 35℃, it is regarded as high temperature period. Moreover, some studies, taking into consideration of the influence of other factors have on human body motivated by high temperature, combine high temperature respectively with the meteorological factor (Gaffen et al,2006), environmental pollution factor (Stedman et al, 2004), and disease factor (Haines et al 2006), and establish various heat indices. At present, diversified heat indices also show the different influences of heat waves on different regions.

人体受热浪影响程度与年龄的关系是关注的重点。尽管部分研究认为不同人群在高温热浪时风险接近（Vaneckova et al.,2008），但大多数研究认为不同年龄人群是有差异的。Nitschke等(2011) 发现15～64岁的人群受影响更明显，陈正洪等(陈正洪等，2002；Carssen et al.2005)认为，64岁以上和74岁以上的老人更易受影响。Smoyer等(Smoyer ,et al 2001)还指出，64岁以上人群中随年龄增长，受热浪影响程度增长更迅速，且主要引发的疾病也在变化。众多研究者对近30年间美国、中国、日本、欧洲的不同城市热浪研究证实，老年人和婴幼儿热调节机能较差，对热应力及相关的空气污染更敏感，所以易受影响(袁晓瑛等,2010；Li et al,2010， Ebi et al,2011)。

Most studies focus on the relation between impact of heat waves on human body and age. Although some studies hold that different groups have the similar risk in heat waves (Vaneckova et al., 2008), most of the studies agree that there are differences among different age groups. Nitschke et al (2011) found out that group aging 15~64 are influenced more obviously; Chen zhenghong et al (2002) and Carssen et al (2005) thought that old people above 64 and 74 are more pliant to the heat waves. Smoyer, et al (2001) also pointed out that degree of the heat waves influence on group above 64 will increase as they are getting older and main diseases it caused are also changing. It is certified by many investigator’s studies on heat waves of last three decades in America, China, Japan and different European cities, that the old people and infants, having weak heat regulating performance and are more sensitive to heat stress and relevant air pollution, are more pliant to heat waves (Yuan xiaoying et al, 2010; Li et al, 2010, Ebi et al, 2011).